OJSC «Seligdar»

In September, the upwards trend was maintained on the markets of precious metals. Increased exchange rate of major currencies, primarily yen and Euro, catalyzed growth of gold prices in excess of the psychologically important threshold of $1000/ounce.

Besides that, other events affecting the prices for precious metals were abundant in September. Among them is the growth of trust of investors to the markets as a consequence of the initiated recovery of the world economics after prolonged recession lasting from the middle of last year. During the second decade of September, most of the leading countries of the world reported beginning of recovery of industries and increasing confidence of the consumers. This all resulted in a rally not only at the raw material markets, but also at stock markets with consequential growth of prices on them.

The markets of USA kept being dominated by the policy of providing additional liquidity, causing growth of speculative attitude and fueling bull operations at stock exchange and raw material markets. However, the current prices of raw materials are getting less and less dependent on the American currency exchange rate, and over the recent weak no high correlation was observed at these markets. This resulted from impossibility to cope with the oscillations of liquidity, wherefore the investors are beginning to prefer other currencies, thus pumping the prices nominated in US dollars up.

In the near future, negative trends can return to the raw material market. This will be associated with (possible) termination of the liquidity pump up program in USA, which will cause dollar exchange rate to grow. However, the current situation in general is not favorable for growth of American currency, and the dollar is most likely to be traded to Euro within the 1.39-1.46 window until beginning of the next fiscal year (November). Lack of correlation between currency exchange rates and cost of raw materials will not allow, even in case of US dollar strengthening, the raw material prices to decrease significantly. Therefore, we expect high prices to be maintained on the markets, including the market of precious metals. Most likely, gold will rebound at the $1030/ounce resistance level and return to lower range in mid October. Price of silver is predicted at $17.8-18.5/ounce. Platinum prices are also growing with the target at  $1400/ ounce.

Platinum prices at LME  (July 2009-Sept. 2009)